Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 14 ¼ cents higher ($5.56 ¼), March 13 ¼ cents higher ($5.64) & July 11 ½ cents higher ($5.67 ¼)

Dec KC Wheat closed 12 ½ cents higher ($4.87 ½), March 12 ¾ cents higher ($4.98 ¼) & July 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.10 ¾)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 10 cents higher ($5.41 ½), March 9 ¼ cents higher ($5.53 ¼) & July 8 cents higher ($5.69)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 335.7 K T. old crop vs. 300-700 K T. expected – 0.3 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Despite feeble looking weekly export sales flat price wheat explodes out of its recent downflagging motion.  The fundamental tout was higher World prices. Personally I think wheat traders wanted to participate in the bull markets that are being enjoyed in the corn and soybean markets.

Interior cash wheat markets (basis) don’t do much. Gulf prices for both hard and soft appear to be easier. Bull spreads work noticeably in Chgo due to the spec buying. KC spreads ran mixed to fractionally better.

Two weeks of downflagging now violated to the upside. The measurement of Dec Chgo wheat suggests something in the vicinity of $5.90. This is contingent on taking out the $5.70 level on a closing basis. Dec KC’s measurement suggests something closer to $5.20. this is contingent on closing above $4.98 ½. My only question is what markets will the wheat market follow to get there – will corn and soybean continue to move higher or will world wheat prices continue to move higher?

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/18

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.45 – $5.65 

Dec KC Wheat: $4.80 – $5.00

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.