Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 20 ¼ cents lower ($5.54 ¾), March 19 ¾ cents lower ($5.63) & July 15 ¾ cents lower ($5.67)

Dec KC Wheat closed 17 cents lower ($4.87 ¼), March 16 ¾ cents lower ($4.98 ¼) & July 15 ¼ cents lower ($5.11 ½)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 16 ½ cents lower ($5.34 ¾), March 16 ½ cents lower ($5.46 ¾) & July 14 ¾ cents lower ($5.63)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 469.9 K T. vs. 450-700 K T. expected

Weekly US Winter Wheat ProgressPlanted – 20% vs. 22% expected vs. 19% 5-year average – Emerged – 3% vs. 2% 5-year average

Weekly US Spring Wheat ProgressHarvested – 96% vs. 97% expected vs. 96% 5-year average

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat

In the past number of weeks you have heard talk about US wheat futures being a follower and not a leader. Today they followed the rest of the US Ag complex lower spurred on the by the sharp strength in the US Dollar. Weekly export inspections were nothing to write home about when compared to expectations. Adding to the bearishness are forecasts for the drier areas of Europe, Eastern Europe and the Black Sea area to see beneficial moisture for winter wheat planting.

Interior wheat basis quotes run unchanged on the day. The SRW basis hasn’t done much of late as the interior HRW continues to show a steady to firm tone. The Gulf basis for both varieties is steady following weakness from mid last week. Spreads in both Chgo and KC widened in response the flat price selling. KC saw the least amount of widening and maintains its trend of gaining on Chgo.

Since my opinion of the wheat market is that of being a follower Tuesday’s trade will be dictated by what Egypt is willing to pay the Russians and whatever the US dollar is doing. Granted last week’s rally was rather acute Thursday and Friday it never really attained a technically overbought on a daily basis. If the World wheat market is as strong as some would like to believe today’s break should not have much downside follow through.

Daily Support & Resistance – 9/22

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.45 – $5.65 

Dec KC Wheat: $4.80 – $4.96

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.