Dec Chgo Wheat closed 11 cents higher ($5.84 ¼), March 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.90 ¼) & July 8 ¼ cents higher ($5.89 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closed 14 ¾ cents higher ($5.24 ¼), March 14 ½ cents higher ($5.33) & July 13 ½ cents higher ($5.44 ½)
Dec Mpls Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.35 ½), March 4 ¼ cents higher ($5.49) & July 4 ¼ cents higher ($5.67 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 643.6 K T. vs. 400-650 K T. expected
Weekly US Winter Wheat Crop Progress – Planted – 52% vs. 50% expected vs. 47% 5-year average – Emerged – 24% vs. 21% 5-year average
A continued lower US Dollar and ongoing concerns over the dry conditions for winter wheat sowing in the US, Ukraine and parts of Russia was pretty much the entire rational for today’s higher prices. Weekly wheat export inspections were at the upper end of expectations. At the end of the week the USDA will update Supply-Demand for the US and the World. We already know the US wheat production will be cut by 12 million bu. which in the grand scheme of things is not a big deal. The bigger deal will be what the USDA pegs as US demand and the World data. All eyes will be on the Russian production as the USDA has yet to address the reports of their 82.0-83.0 M T. crop. Last month the USDA had the Russian crop at 78.0 M T.
The interior wheat basis runs mostly unchanged for standard protein. The Gulf basis continues to firm for HRW while the SRW basis is mostly steady. Bull spreads tightened in both Chgo and KC reflecting the upfront buying. KC continues to be a noticeable gainer on Chgo. Chgo Dec wheat appears in line to test its Jan 22nd high; $5.99 ½. The interim high for Dec KC wheat, $5.37 ¾, was made on Jan 15th. Whether these tests occur before or after the USDA report on Friday remains to be seen. Winter wheat planting conditions going forward and the USDA world data will dictate whether or not the current rally can sustain itself beyond the aforementioned highs. For what it’s worth the short term inter-day price data is beginning to look a bit heady.
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/06
Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.74 – $5.94
Dec KC Wheat: $5.15 – $5.35
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