Dec Chgo Wheat closed 14 ¾ cents higher ($6.07 ½), March 11 ¾ cents higher ($6.10) & July 9 cents higher ($6.05 ½)
Dec KC Wheat closed 10 ¼ cents higher ($5.44 ½), March 10 cents higher ($5.53) & July 9 ½ cents higher ($5.63 ¼)
Dec Mpls Wheat closed 11 cents higher ($5.49 ¼), March 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.62. ¼) & July 10 ¾ cents higher ($5.79 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-600 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected
The US winter wheat areas are too dry. The winter wheat areas of France are too wet. The winter wheat areas of Russia are too dry. Ukraine has received some rainfall but more is needed. With the exception of France the too dry areas are still reporting sowing but rainfall is needed to ensure successful germination which could lead to a successful crop. World cash wheat prices remain quite strong despite Russia’s successful crop this past season. With all of this said the spec continues to pile into the futures market not only here but in Europe as well. The Mpls market even showed some game today.
Interior cash wheat markets continue to not give us much. This holds true for the export markets as well. Fund buying continues to tighten the spreads in Chgo; not so much in KC.
The continuation of 5-year highs in Chgo and 2-year highs in KC says it all. Funds are long and getting longer. I’m not sure the USDA has enough bullets to keep the rally going but the ongoing weather issues do. One may think the recent 60 cent run in higher in Chgo has the market in overbought status – its not. Another couple of days like the past 3-4 may get us there. As I alluded to earlier nothing bearish about the today’s price action and not much of sign of an end in sight.
Daily Support & Resistance – 10/08
Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.98 – ???
Dec KC Wheat: $5.35 – ???
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of eclipse the high side of expectations.