Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed ½ cent higher ($5.94 ¼), March unchanged ($5.97 ¾) & July ½ cent higher ($5.94 ¾)

Dec KC Wheat closed 5 cents lower ($5.30 ½), March 5 cents lower ($5.39 ½) & July 3 ¾ cents lower ($5.51)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 1 cent lower ($5.42 ¾), March 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.55 ¾) & July 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.74)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – Tomorrow

Weekly US Winter Wheat Progress – Tomorrow

Wheat prices move into a consolidation pattern not so much of a price correction pattern. This holds true for the inter-market spreads as well. Unlike soybean prices that are looking at better moisture for planting the dry areas of the US winter wheat areas and Russian winter wheat areas forecasts for moisture remain vague at best. Yes, the spec trade is net long not to the extent seen elsewhere in the grain complex. Current stocks of wheat remain ample but if the winter wheat areas don’t improve for germination the new crop could take a substantial hit.

Interior cash wheat prices (basis) are not seeing much change. The Gulf basis for both HRW and SRW appear to have an easing bias. Spreads in Chgo ran fractionally mixed on the day while KC spreads ran steady to slightly easier.

The consolidation pattern is contingent on the value of the US Dollar and the weather scenario for the US Plains and the winter wheat areas of Russia.  As long as the US Dollar stays weak and beneficial weather fails to materialize for the areas of concern the bias will be for higher prices. As of this writing the inter-day pattern for Chgo wheat resembles downflagging; not a bearish price formation. The inter-day price action for the KC futures is more sideways; not so much downflagging. Both of these markets show room for additional consolidation/correction but as I mentioned its more about weather and US wheat costs vs. our overseas rivals.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/13

Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.85 – $6.10 

Dec KC Wheat: $5.23 – $5.45