Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed ¼ cent lower ($5.94), March ½ cent lower ($5.97 ¼), & July 2 cents lower ($5.92 ¾)

Dec KC Wheat closed ¾ cent higher ($5.31 ¼), March ¾ cent higher ($5.40 ¼) & July 1 ½ cents higher ($5.52 ½)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 1 ½ cents higher ($5.44 ¼), March 1 ½ cents higher ($5.57 ¼) & July ¾ cent higher ($5.74 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 514.0 K T. vs. 400-650 K T. expected

US Weekly Winter Wheat ProgressPlanted – 68% vs. 67% expected vs. 61% 5-year average

Flat price US wheat futures continue to consolidate. On a number of occasions during the day they tried to rally on the ongoing dryness fears for our own winter wheat areas as well as those in Ukraine and Russia but today’s strength in the US Dollar said no. Weekly export inspections were deemed no big deal as they favored the lower half of expectations. Then again the recent rally has not been about demand but rather fears for the new crop. Forecasts continue to be vague for moisture for both the US and our overseas competitors. Within the next couple of weeks the USDA will start reporting the condition of the recent planted winter wheat and I cannot imagine it will look very good.

Not much change is being seen with the interior wheat basis for either HRW or SRW. Export levels for both varieties continue to grind easier. Spreads in Chgo saw fractional easiness upfront but gains on the new crop. KC spreads saw steady to fractionally easier upfront while old crop loses to the new crop.

Without some solid forecasts suggesting rain for the dry areas of winter wheat in this country and overseas I doubt we will see much downside correction in either the KC or Chgo wheat markets. From a pure technical point of view there is room to correct 10-15 cents. Without better moisture in the areas of concern I have think corrections will be short lived.

Daily Support & Resistance – 10/14

Dec Chgo Wheat – $5.85 – $6.05

Dec KC Wheat – $5.25 – $5.45

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