Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.96 ¾), March 3 ½ cents higher ($6.00 ¾), & July 2 ¼ cents higher ($5.95)

Dec KC Wheat closed 4 cents higher ($5.35 ¼), March 4 cents higher ($5.44 ¼) & July 4 ¼ cents higher ($5.56 ¾)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.46), March 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.59) & July 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.76 ½)

Flat price wheat was lower for most of the Tuesday night session on forecasts from the NWS calling for above normal moisture in the US plains in their latest 6-10 day forecast (still calling for it with today’s update). Support came in from an easing US Dollar after yesterday’s sharp rally. During the day a resurgence of world wheat business ( Algeria, Turkey & Pakistan just to name the big ones) brought prices back to the plus side of the day.

The interior cash wheat basis remains quiet. The HRW basis at the Gulf edges back up ever so slightly after recent easiness. The SRW Gulf basis jumps 10-15 cents overnight – not sure what’s that’s all about as I’m not seeing any major interest for US SRW at least not yet. Chgo spreads run mixed as Dec loses to March while March gains on May forward. KC spreads run steady to mixed with only fractional changes being seen.

Both Chgo and KC maintain their recent consolidation/correction mode. Rain is in the forecasts for the dry areas of the US HRW areas – not so much for the dry areas of Ukraine and Russia. World wheat prices continue to be firm. US wheat prices will continue in their role as a follower. I will suggest the inability to stay down with weather in the forecast for US areas of concern a test of last week’s highs is not out of the question.

Daily Support & Resistance 10/14

Dec Chgo Wheat – $5.90 – $6.12

Dec KC Wheat – $5.27 – $5.49

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