Dec Chgo Wheat closed 9 cents higher ($6.07 ½), March 8 cents higher ($6.08), & July 6 ½ cents higher ($5.99)
Dec KC Wheat closed 11 ¾ cents higher ($5.53), March 10 ¼ cents higher ($5.58) & July 9 ¾ cents higher ($5.68)
Dec Mpls Wheat closed 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.56), March 3 ¾ cents higher ($5.69) & July 4 ½ cents lower ($5.79)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 287.0 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected
US Weekly Winter Wheat Condition & Progress – 43% GE (+2%) vs. 45% expected vs. 57% year ago – Planted – 89% vs.91 % expected vs. 86% 5-year average – Emerged – 71% vs. 70% 5-year average
The new week, the new month, brings us another tranche of global wheat tenders; Turkey, Tunisia, Japan and Syria. China has been auctioning wheat out of their reserves dating back to this summer. Up until recently there had not been that much interest. Chinese feeders are starting to opt for more wheat in their rations due to their high corn prices. Concerns still linger as to the conditions of the US winter wheat crop as well as the Russian winter wheat crop. All of these factors had US wheat futures shooting higher as today’s day session began. The Sunday night session was spent in negative territory. Some will opine that the global spread of the virus has some countries stockpiling wheat. The US markets, led by the KC contract, were the global upside leaders on Monday as Europe was quiet and Russian prices were only marginally higher. Weekly wheat export inspections were disappointing based on expectations.
The interior basis for both SRW and HRW continue to be quiet. As we move into November the Gulf basis for both varieties saw improvement. Bull spreads were working in both Chgo and KC. Just how much of this bull spreading is a result of the flat price buying remains to be seen.
From a technical standpoint it still looks like US wheat futures have made a top despite today’s rally as well as its outside day with the higher close. $6.15 to $6.20 should be some formidable resistance for Dec Chgo while the same can be said for the $5.60 level for the Dec KC.
Daily Support & Resistance – 11/03
Dec Chgo Wheat: $5.95 – $6.15
Dec KC Wheat: $5.40 – $5.60
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