Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 5 ½ cents higher ($5.98 ¾), March 5 cents higher ($6.04 ½), & July 3 ½ cents higher ($6.01 ¾)

Dec KC Wheat closed 1 cent higher ($5.51 ¼), March 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.60 ½) & July 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.70 ¾)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 1 ½ cents lower ($5.42 ½), March unchanged ($5.61) & July ½ cent higher ($5.78 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 358.0 K T. vs. 150-400 K T. expected

US Winter Wheat Condition – 43% GE (-3%) vs. 47% expected vs. 52% year ago – Emerged – 89% vs. 88% 5-year average

Chgo wheat trades on the coattails of the strength on the corn and soybean markets. KC and Mpls wheat were the weak sisters as it appeared they took there cue from the recent moisture in Kansas (it wasn’t much but more vs. what they have seen in recent weeks) as well as the idea the Australian wheat crop will soon be online offering competitive price pressure. Weekly export inspections were towards the upper end of expectations but as far as I’m concerned still not market making.

Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. The recent easing in the HRW export market bounces back while the recent strength in the SRW export market eases. Wheat spreads had a firming bias in Chgo as did the old crop/new crop spreads. As of this writing I don’t have much of a feel for Chgo deliveries while it looks like we could see both KC and Mpls deliveries.

Not much has changed with the recent price action for Chgo wheat. The last few days have been sideways within a well-defined sideways to lower channel. The price action in KC is more sideways with a succession of lower highs and higher lows. The biggest feature of the March KC chart is the double top against the $5.86 level.

Daily Support & Resistance – 11/24

March Chgo Wheat: $5.97 – $6.10

March KC Wheat: $5.51 – $5.66

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