Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 16 ¼ cents lower ($5.80 ¼), March 21 cents lower ($5.85), & July 18 ¼ cents lower ($5.88 ½)

Dec KC Wheat closed 15 ¾ cents lower ($5.45 ¾), March 18 ¼ cents lower ($5.47) & July 18 ½ cents lower ($5.56 ½)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 16 ¼ cents lower ($5.34 ½), March 17 cents lower ($5.53) & July 16 ¼ cents lower ($5.70)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 502.7 K T. vs. 300-600 K T. expected

Weekly Winter Wheat Condition & Progress – 46% GE (+3%) vs. 43% expected vs. 52% year ago – Emerged – 92% vs. 91% 5-year average

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat

Russia contemplates increasing wheat exports to 17.5 M T. for the second half of its marketing year up from 15.0 M T. ABARES (the Australian version of our USDA) increases its wheat crop size to 31.17 M T. vs. the recent USDA estimate of 28.5 M T. Turkey announced a 400 K T. tender that will run to this Friday. Weekly wheat export inspections were no big deal (just my opinion). The lack of deliveries against both Dec Chgo and Dec KC was supportive to the nearby spread but did little to influence the flat price. Last but not least I’m sure there was some month end considerations from the fund sector.

Cash wheat markets, both interior and for export remain quiet. March forward spreads in Chgo showed a bearish bias which goes with the flat price selling. The same spreads in KC ran flat with a very slight fractional bullish bias until one got out to September.

Chgo wheat registers its lowest close dating back to early October. Last week’s flip-flopping followed by today’s noticeably lower close gives the Chgo wheat charts a very bearish look. KC charts are nowhere near as bearish looking. That won’t occur until March KC closes below $5.40. It will be interesting if the Turkey and Egyptian tenders offer any type of support.

Daily Support & Resistance – 12/01

March Chgo Wheat: $5.80 – $5.93

March KC Wheat: $5.40 – $5.55

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