Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($5.14 ¼), May 5 ¼ cents lower ($5.19 ¾) & July 5 cents lower ($5.24 ½)

March KC Wheat closed 5 ½ cents lower ($4.99), May 5 ¾ cents lower ($5.10 ¼) & July 6 cents lower ($5.19 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 545.8 K T. vs. 250-400 K T. expected – Cumulative for the year – 13.486 M T. vs. 15.209 M T. year ago

I’m told Russian prices are moving higher yet US prices are not. The US may have low FOB prices but when freight is added we’re not that low; not low enough to garner any new business. Although Russian prices stay relatively strong the selling we saw from them on last week’s Egyptian tender was barely short of aggressive. Many are trying to suggest this won’t last much longer. Then again these “many” have been saying this since early December and here we sit at similar levels to what we saw in December. Weekly export inspections were deemed okay but unfortunately “okay” just doesn’t cut it.  

Interior cash wheat markets are quiet. Export wheat markets are quiet. Chgo wheat spreads eased fractionally but the trend remains firm. KC wheat spreads firmed fractionally while their trend reads sideways to higher. The firm bias in the intra-market spreads is a direct result of deliverable receipts being cancelled. Delivery registrations for Chgo stand at 10 contracts and for KC just 2. I have to think this is all about quality and the demand for it. “They” tell me this will eventually get into the export market and will eventually buoy the flat price.

Momentum indicators on the daily price charts are reading higher. Shorter term indicators are suggesting not to sell into today’s sell-off. That tells me I’m supposed to be buying any further weakness tonight, tomorrow.

Daily Support & Resistance for 01/15

Mch Chgo Wheat: $5.10 – $5.24 (?)  

Mch KC Wheat: $4.96 – $5.00 (?)

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