Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

Dec Chgo Wheat closed 12 ½ cents higher ($5.78), March 11 ¼ cents higher ($5.88 ½), & July 9 cents higher ($5.90)

Dec KC Wheat closed 13 cents higher ($5.50 ½), March 14 ¾ cents higher ($5.53 ¾) & July 14 cents higher ($5.62 ¾)

Dec Mpls Wheat closed 5 ¾ cents higher ($5.40 ¼), March 6 ¾ cents higher ($5.56) & July 5 ½ cents higher ($5.71 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Inter-market spreading, buying wheat vs. selling corn and soybeans, was the best support I saw today. Some will say bottom picking in response to the flat price recent break but I’m not seeing anything bullish about US wheat. Others will say the break in the US dollar. The US dollar has been trending lower since April and I don’t see that it has garnered the US any extra business other than China. Maybe that’s it – last week sales’ report had China taking 330 K T. of US wheat. Will they be there again for tomorrow sales report? The range of trade guesses suggests no one really knows.

Interior cash wheat markets continue to be quiet as do export values. Bull spreads were working in Chgo, not so much in KC. It seems whenever the Chgo wheat market has a sharp flat price move spreads will follow.

The technical make-up of the wheat charts suggests trading affair at best. Fading sharp inter-day extremes continue to work for short term trading opportunities. Why should I do anything different?

Daily Support & Resistance – 12/03

March Chgo Wheat: $5.80 – $6.00

March KC Wheat: $5.44 – $5.63

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.