Dec Chgo Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.71 ¼), March 2 cents higher ($5.77 ½), & July 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.82 ¼)
Dec KC Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($5.42 ½), March 2 ¾ cents higher ($5.45 ½) & July 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.54)
Dec Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¾ cents lower ($5.33 ¼), March 1 ¾ cents lower ($5.48 ¾) & July ¼ cent lower ($5.65 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 530.7 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected
So how do I explain today’s rally off of the early day lows – volatility! Daily trading funds have been pushing this market around for the last number of days so today was no different. New news was slight if any. The US dollar remains depressed so that’s nothing new. Weekly export inspections were mid-range of expectations. Coming into the day session short term technical considerations were reading rather low so fading those extremes was nothing new. Overall US wheat doesn’t have much of a story and I’m not sure what’s out there for a story to develop.
Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet as does the export market. Spreads in Chgo had a slightly bearish bias while KC spreads had a slight bullish bias. Despite the depressed look of the US dollar it so far has failed to generate any appreciable business for US wheat.
All I can say about trading US wheat is to fade short term extremes for short term trading opportunities. The immediate trend remains lower. I do think as the March Chgo contract approaches the $5.55 level the current down trend will begin to level off.
Daily Support & Resistance – 12/08
March Chgo Wheat: $5.68 – $5.83
March KC Wheat: $5.35 – $5.50
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.