Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 10 ¼ cents higher ($6.08 ¾), May 10 cents higher ($6.09 ¾) & July 9 cents higher ($6.04)

March KC Wheat closed 8 ½ cents higher ($5.70), May 8 ¼ cents higher ($5.74) & July 8 ¼ cents higher ($5.76)

March Mpls Wheat closed 8 ¼ cents higher ($5.67), May 8 ½ cents higher ($5.75 ¾) & July 8 ¼ cents higher ($5.83 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 540.4 K T. old crop vs. 250-650 K T. expected – 21.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected

The continued decline in the US Dollar is one of the primary supporting features for the US wheat futures’ markets. Talk that Argentina is lowering their wheat crop estimate to 16.5 M T. vs. the most recent USDA at 18.0 M T. also lent support as did the general bullishness throughout the US Ag complex. Chatter out of Russia suggests the government is closely monitoring exports to insure there is no major rush ahead of February 15th when the export tax and quotas are scheduled to kick in. Weekly wheat export sales, I thought, were just above ho-hum.

Interior basis levels for both SRW and HRW don’t do much. The export market has the SRW basis fully steady yet strong while the HRW export basis is edging higher. Bull spreads were working in both Chgo and KC.

I’m still playing the idea of a trading range developing in March Chgo wheat between $5.80 and $6.20. My risk to this thought is on the upside. The trading range idea is for the KC as well with the same risk to the upside.

Daily Support & Resistance – 12/18

March Chgo Wheat: $6.01 – $6.18

March KC Wheat: $5.62 – $5.78

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.