Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 1 ½ cents higher ($6.42), May 1 cent higher ($6.40 ½) & July 1 ½ cents higher ($6.29 ¾)

March KC Wheat closed 4 cents lower ($5.99 ½), May 3 cents lower ($6.03 ¼) & July 2 ¼ cents lower ($6.05)

March Mpls Wheat closed ¼ cent lower ($5.99 ½), May unchanged ($6.07 ¼) & July unchanged ($6.12)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 324.9 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected

For a good portion of the session wheat futures were following the rest of the Ag complex. They moved higher Sunday night and turned lower during the day on Monday. It was at the end of the day when Chgo futures found some independent support which looked like it stemmed from inter-market spreading (against corn, soybeans, and KC wheat). New news remains slight. Weekly export inspections were really nothing to write home about. The biggest issue at hand remains the ramifications of the Russian export tax and export quota beginning on February 15th. So far I’m not seeing a lot of global importers freaking out over this but th consensus seems global prices will stay relatively firm from this issue.

Interior cash wheat prices have taken on a firm look. The interior SRW basis has a firm tone in both Toledo and Chgo. The HRW basis is steady in Kansas and firm in Oklahoma. Both respective basis for export shows a firm tone. I have to think cash wheat movement remains minimal. Chgo spreads ran steady to fractionally mixed while KC spreads softened.

Chgo wheat charts continue to show a firm bias. KC charts registered a minor sell signal from today’s price action. Going forward my bias is to have US wheat futures continuing to follow the rest of the Ag sector. With that said consolidation with some backing and filling can be expected.

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/05

March Chgo Wheat : $6.30 – $6.51

March KC Wheat: $5.90 – $6.10

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.