Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 12 cents higher ($6.54), May 12 ¾ cents higher ($6.53 ¼) & July 10 ½ cents higher ($6.40 ¼)

March KC Wheat closed 9 ¾ cents higher ($6.09 ¼), May 9 ½ cents higher ($6.12 ¾) & July 9 ¼ cents higher ($6.14 ¼)

March Mpls Wheat closed 8 ¼ cents higher ($6.07 ¼), May 8 ¼ cents higher ($6.15 ½) & July 8 ¼ cents higher ($6.20 ¼)

The threat that the Argentine producer may shut down their country’s entire grain movement gets into the US wheat market. Remember that Argentina is wrapping up this year’s wheat harvest. If their wheat trade shuts down that really opens the door for some US origin into the global export circles. The continuing slump in the value of the US dollar keeps US origin somewhat competitive.

Interior cash wheat prices (basis) don’t do a whole lot but they do show a firm bias. This scenario holds true for the export basis as well; not a lot of change but a firm bias. Old crop/new crop spreads in Chgo work noticeably while not much happens with the KC spreads; just a grinding higher bias.

Nothing bearish about the price action here (Chgo). Chgo gets the majority of the speculative play so it has a stronger looking picture vs. KC. There is an interim spike high at the $6.77 level from December of 2014. After that I couldn’t help but notice a breakdown gap at the $7.05 – $7.14 level dating back to May of 2014. The KC charts are in some weekly resistance as we speak, better at $6.50. If US exports do really get on a roll $7.00 gets really noticeable on the longer term charts.

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/06

March Chgo Wheat : $6.40 – ???

March KC Wheat: $5.95 – ???

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