Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($6.42 ¼), May 4 ¾ cents lower ($6.43 ¼) & July 5 cents lower ($6.34)

March KC Wheat closed 5 cents lower ($5.98 ½), May 4 ½ cents lower ($6.03) & July 3 ¾ cents lower ($6.06)

March Mpls Wheat closed 3 cents lower ($6.03 ¼), May 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.12) & July 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.16 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 275.3 K T. old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – 6.0 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Flat price wheat futures followed the crowd today with some modest profit taking. Weekly export sales were disappointing considering the recent rally. Overseas markets were quiet as the Black Sea area was on holiday. Trade estimates for Tuesday’s USDA report suggest nothing dramatic as far as stocks are concerned. Winter wheat acreage is expected to see its first noticeable increase – 1.113 M acres. This may mean something a few months from now.

The interior cash wheat basis is fully steady as sales remain sporadic. The Gulf for both HRW and SRW continue to show a firm tone. Spreads have been easing along with the flat price.

Wheat charts suggest we have entered a minor corrective phase. From a technical point of view break this market another 20 cents or so and I think we’ll find some decent support. Trade should stay somewhat choppy for the next couple of days. When all is said and done I have to think the wheat market will continue to be a crowd follower.

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/08

March Chgo Wheat : $6.38 – $6.56

March KC Wheat: $5.95 – $6.12

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.