Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 30 ¼ cents higher ($6.65), May 29 cents higher ($6.65 ¾) & July 22 ¼ cents higher ($6.51)

March KC Wheat closed 28 ½ cents higher ($6.22 ½), May 27 ¾ cents higher ($6.26 ¼) & July 26 ¼ cents higher ($6.28)

March Mpls Wheat closed 14 ¾ cents higher ($6.20 ¾), May 14 ½ cents higher ($6.29) & July 15 ¼ cents higher ($6.33)

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – Egypt cancels tender (not enough offers (4) and/or prices too high?)

Flat price wheat runs with the crowd. Old crop data was mildly friendly while a bigger influence are the sharply higher world prices (thank you Russia and its idea to double its export tax – more on that later this week). .

Quarterly Wheat Stocks come in 21 M bu. less than expected while down 167 M bu. vs. one year ago

US Carryout comes in 23 M bu. less than expected and declines by 26 M bu. vs. December. S-T-U 39.1% vs. 40.8% last month

US Demand increases 26 M Bu. (25 M bu. feed, exports unchanged)

World Carryout comes in 2.18 M T. less than expected and down 3.31 M T. from last month

US Winter Wheat Seedings come in 463 K acres higher than expected and 1.576 M acres higher vs. one year ago – HRW 938 K higher vs. one year ago – SRW 666 K higher vs. one year ago – WW 9 K less than one year ago

I’m not seeing any changes in the interior wheat basis nor the Gulf basis. They both continue to hold steady to firm. Chgo spreads ran tighter with the higher flat price and most noticeably the old crop vs. the new crop. KC spreads tightened as well but not as noticeably as Chgo.

As long as World wheat prices remain strong US wheat futures will go along for the ride despite disappointing US export demand. Just remember as prices go higher as will the intra-day volatility. For what it is worth – back in December weekly wheat charts saw an interim spike high at $6.77. After that we look at a gap at $7.14 that was made in May of 2014

Daily Support & Resistance – 01/13

March Chgo Wheat : $6.55 – ???

March KC Wheat: $6.15 – ???

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