March Chgo Wheat closed 9 ½ cents higher ($6.70), May 9 ¾ cents higher ($6.71) & July 7 ½ cents higher ($6.55)
March KC Wheat closed 10 ¾ cents higher ($6.36 ½), May 10 ½ cents higher ($6.40) & July 10 ¼ cents higher ($6.40 ¾)
March Mpls Wheat closed 11 ¾ cents higher ($6.40 ½), May 11 ¾ cents higher ($6.48 ¾) & July 12 ¼ cents higher ($6.52 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 221.9 K T. old crop vs. 250-500 K T. expected – 10.1 K T. new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected
US weekly export sales continue to disappoint. World wheat prices continue to move higher and that is what US wheat futures traders are focusing on. Russia and its export taxes/quotas are the primary drivers. Today there was a blurb from the Russian news agency INTERFAX that talked about the possibility of export taxes on their new crop. Supposedly this is all in an effort to stem Russia’s food inflation. Who knows if this will actually happen but given the fact that Russia is the World’s largest wheat exporter stories like this get noticed.
Not much happens with the interior wheat basis. The HRW basis at the Gulf eases a bit while the SRW basis at the Gulf firms a bit. Old crop Chgo spreads don’t so much while the old crop gains on the new crop. KC spreads ran fractionally mixed. After correcting for most of December and early January the hard wheat varieties have started to reassert themselves vs. the soft variety. If the flat price is truly entering a mega bull move the hard varieties will lead.
I’m not seeing anything bearish looking about today’s price action despite yesterday’s minor reversal in the Chgo market. I say “Chgo” because both KC and Mpls did not register any suggested reversal. For what it is worth – March Mpls wheat closing above $6.50 will strongly suggest another 50 cents higher.
Daily Support & Resistance – 01/15
March Chgo Wheat : $6.60 – $6.80 (?)
March KC Wheat: $6.28 – ???
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