Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 14 ½ cents higher ($6.55 ¾), May 13 ¾ cents higher ($6.59 ½) & July 11 cents higher ($6.43)

March KC Wheat closed 14 ¼ cents higher ($6.39 ½), May 14 ¼ cents higher ($6.44 ¼) & July 13 ½ cents higher ($6.44 ¾)

March Mpls Wheat closed 9 ¼ cents higher ($6.35 ¼), May 9 ¾ cents higher ($6.46 ¼) & July 9 cents higher ($6.53)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 441.0 K T. vs. 350-550 K T. expected

The Artic like temperatures across much of the US’ winter wheat growing areas was the primary support for today’s trade. It’s not like this weather is going to be a 1 or 2 day event as it is expected to last into next week. Weekly export inspections were okay as they came in at midrange of expectations. Strength elsewhere in the CBOT Ag complex lends support as does the softening US Dollar. It appears Russia has come up with a formula for wheat export taxes. It basically says the higher wheat prices go the higher the export tax.

Average trade guess for US wheat carryout – 834 million bu. vs. 836 month ago

Average trade guess for World corn carryout – 312.86 M T. vs. 313.19 month ago

I’m not sure the USDA will have much to offer with their S-D updates unless trade guesses are way out of whack. The average trade guesses suggest plenty of wheat in this country as well as worldwide. The weather story is expected to carry the ball for the next number of days. It will be interesting to see how the wheat market handles the possibility of a bearish corn report given the current weather scenario. The price configurations actually show a positive slant given the interim double bottom in the March Chgo contract against the $4.25 level. The March KC contract has a similar look; an interim double bottom against the $6.05 level.

Daily Support  & Resistance – 02/09

March Chgo Wheat : $6.42 – $6.65 ($6.75)

March KC Wheat: $6.23 – $6.48 ($6.60)

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