Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 14 cents lower ($6.35 ½), May 13 cents lower ($6.41) & July 11 ½ cents lower ($6.29 ½)

March KC Wheat closed 19 ½ cents lower ($6.14), May 18 ½ cents lower ($6.20) & July 17 ¾ cents lower ($6.21 ½)

March Mpls Wheat closed 7 ¾ cents lower ($6.18 ¾), May 7 ½ cents lower ($6.30) & July 8 cents lower ($6.37 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Wheat futures followed the crowd lower on Wednesday. Inter-market spreading offered some left-handed support – the liquidation of long corn/short wheat and long soybeans/short wheat. The different wheat varieties also saw their own inter-market spreading. The KC market got the short end of the stick on these spreads resulting from the increase in the HRW carryout on yesterday’s S&D report.

The interior cash wheat markets continue to be quiet with their respective advertised basis for standard protein wheat. This holds true for the respective export markets as well. Spreads continue to ease as a result of the flat price selling as well as the ongoing index fund rolling. For what it is worth tomorrow is the last day of the index fund rolling.

The mid-$6.20 level has been holding March wheat since January 25th. The March wheat chart shows this level as an interim triple bottom. Charting 101 suggests triple bottoms don’t hold. The March KC chart is not as exact looking but the best looking support here is closer to the $6.05 level. All I can say at this point in time is that the wheat market will continue to be a crowd follower.

Daily Support  & Resistance – 02/11

March Chgo Wheat : $6.25 (?) – $6.46

March KC Wheat: $6.05 – $6.26

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.