Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($6.33 ½), May 2 cents lower ($6.39) & July 1 ¼ cents lower ($6.28 ¼)

March KC Wheat closed 3 cents lower ($6.11), May 3 cents lower ($6.17) & July 2 cents lower ($6.19 ½)

March Mpls Wheat closed 2 ½ cents lower ($6.16 ¼), May 3 cents lower ($6.27) & July 2 ½ cents lower ($6.34 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 591.0 K T. old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – 44.4 K T. new crop vs. none expected

Wheat futures saw a far less volatile trade vs. the corn and soybean markets. Left-handed inter-market spread support limited the night session to only modest losses. Better than expected weekly wheat export sales lifted prices during the day session to 9-10 cents higher but in the end those advances were not sustained. Prices finished within shouting distance of their nighttime lows. Other than the weekly export sales report I did not see any other substantial wheat impacting news.

Interior basis levels for standard protein wheat remain steady to quiet. This holds true the export markets as well. Chgo spreads were steady upfront while the old crop continues to ease vs. the new crop. KC spreads ran a similar route. For what it is worth today was the last day for index fund rolling of their passive longs.

The recent sideways to easier trend continues as March Chgo wheat registers its lowest closet dating back to January 11th. The mid-$6.20’s has been supporting March Chgo wheat for the past 2 ½ weeks. My problem is that we’ve tested this level 3 times now – I was taught that is one too many times to well. The KC market is seeing similar price action. The bottom line here is that for the past 2 ½ weeks attempts to rally have not been holding. I’ll leave it that.

Daily Support  & Resistance – 02/12

March Chgo Wheat : $6.25 (?) – $6.45

March KC Wheat: $6.05 (?) – $6.25

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.