May Chgo Wheat closed ¼ cent higher ($4.69 ½), July ½ cent higher ($4.75) & Dec ½ cent higher ($4.97 ½)
May KC Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.44 ½), July 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.52 ¼) & Dec 1 ¼ cents higher ($4.84)
May Mpls Wheat closed ½ cent higher ($5.67 ¾), July ¼ cent higher ($5.66 ¾), & Dec 1 ¾ cents higher ($5.82 ¼)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-200 K T. expected
Hopes for more export business because Egypt took two loads of US SRW the other day, concerns over the quality of the up and coming SRW crop, the low HRW acres and whether or not the spring crop will get planted in N. Dakota all worked together on Wednesday to support the flat price wheat. In addition to all of this the spec trade remains a sizeable short in the market. On Friday the USDA will give us the March 1st Quarterly wheat stocks. The number is expected to be some variation of large. In addition we will get updated winter wheat acres as well as prospective spring wheat plantings. Given current conditions in N. Dakota, snow and cold, it remains a bit questionable just how much spring wheat gets planted.
Advertised cash wheat prices (basis) for “normal protein continue to run unchanged. Export prices are unchanged as well but with a firm undertone. Anything that gets shipped to the Gulf continues deal with weather related issues. Wheat spreads ran mixed in Chgo; fractionally easier upfront. KC spreads were pretty flat on the day.
Daily charts read a bit high and in my opinion a bit precarious meaning vulnerable to a sell-off in the near term. I understand the issues supporting the price action. As of this writing I feel like I’m caught between a rock and a hard place; fundamentals are somewhat supportive while the daily chart action has me somewhat reluctant to come after current levels. With that said I’ll employ an old adage “when in doubt stay out”. I’d feel better about buying May Chgo wheat at $4.60 if not closer to the mid-low $4.50’s.
Daily Support & Resistance for 03/28
May Chgo Wheat: $4.60 – $4.76
May KC Wheat: $4.37 – $4.52
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