Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 20 ¾ cents higher ($6.57 ½), May 20 ¼ cents higher ($6.61 ½) & July 16 ¾ cents higher ($6.46 ¾)

March KC Wheat closed 20 ¾ cents higher ($6.37 ½), May 20 ¾ cents higher ($6.43 ¼) & July 19 ½ cents higher ($6.45 ¼)

March Mpls Wheat closed 15 ¼ cents higher ($6.31 ¼), May 15 ¼ cents higher ($6.41 ¼) & July 15 cents higher ($6.49)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 392.5 K T. vs. 300-600 K T. expected

Question of the Day: How much of the US winter wheat crop has been negatively impacted by the ongoing deep freeze? Speculation suggests 30% of the crop has been impacted and most of it is in Kansas. It’s going to take some time to get a full realization of the weather’s impact but for now it appears the trade wants to be long. Weekly wheat export inspections I thought were no big deal.

If there was some cash wheat that wanted to move the weather says not now. The HRW basis at the Gulf appears to be a bit easier while the SRW basis for export runs unchanged. Chgo spreads were fractionally tighter within the current crop year but noticeably tighter vs. the new crop. If the flat price rally was about concern for the new crop I wouldn’t think the bull spreading would have been so noticeable.

March Chgo wheat can run to the mid-low $6.70’s without violating the recent sideways motion. The same can be said for the March KC contract against the $6.50 level. It’s only February so it will be interesting to see just how much the trade wants to push the price higher around the unknown condition of the new crop.

Daily Support  & Resistance – 02/17

March Chgo Wheat : $6.49 – $6.73

March KC Wheat: $6.28 – $6.48

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.