Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 13 ½ cents lower ($6.44), May 13 ½ cents lower ($6.48) & July 9 ½ cents lower ($6.37 ¼)

March KC Wheat closed 13 cents lower ($6.24 ½), May 13 cents lower ($6.30 ¼) & July 11 ¾ cents lower ($6.33 ½)

March Mpls Wheat closed 8 ¼ cents lower ($6.23), May 7 ¼ cents lower ($6.34) & July 6 ¾ cents lower ($6.42 ¼)

Given today’s performance, giving back a great deal of yesterday’s gains, I have to think the trade realized it’s difficult to assess freeze damage to the winter wheat crop in the middle of February. Adding to the day’s pessimism is evidence that the current high prices are cutting into demand. Algeria bought the smallest amount (just 32 K T.) of wheat in years at their most recent tender. The Philippines passed on a 150 K T. wheat tender and Jordan only bought 60 K t. of wheat at their 120 K T. tender. Strength in the US Dollar added to the day’s woes. The bottomline to all of this is that the recent sideways trade continues.

Interior cash wheat markets remain quiet. This holds true for export values as well. Old crop spreads in both Chgo and KC ran steady while old crop lost what it gained yesterday vs. the new crop.

Fading short term inter-day extremes continues to be the best MO for trading flat price wheat. It never ceases to amaze me that whenever this market looks like it is ready to break out one way or the other it fails to follow through. Once again it acts as a reminder one cannot chase the inter-day extremes thinking this time it is going to different.

Daily Support  & Resistance – 02/18

March Chgo Wheat : $6.38 – $6.53

March KC Wheat: $6.18 – $6.33

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.