Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 18 ½ cents higher ($6.62 ½), May 17 ¼ cents higher ($6.65 ¼) & July 12 ½ cents higher ($6.49 ¾)

March KC Wheat closed 12 ¼ cents higher ($6.36 ¾), May 12 ¾ cents higher ($6.43) & July 13 cents higher ($6.46 ½)

March Mpls Wheat closed 8 ¾ cents higher ($6.31 ¾), May 8 ¾ cents higher ($6.42 ¾) & July 8 ½ cents higher ($6.50 ¾)

USDA suggests US wheat planted acres for 2021/22 at 45.0 M vs. 44.3 M year ago

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-650 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-50 K T. expected

Is anyone keeping up with the recent 3-day flip-flop in wheat prices? Today the trade was back touting freeze damage but probably more importantly World export business appears to be picking up. I’m not seeing any real big numbers but there are a number of countries seeking wheat. Russian Ag agencies are not talking to one another as earlier this week IKAR suggested their new crop potential is increasing (77.0 M T. now 78.0 M T.) while SovEcon cited  declining potential (77.7 M T. now 76.2 M T.). Adding to this was the USDA suggesting total planted wheat acres for the coming year at 45.0 M. We already know winter wheat acres are at 32.0 M T. so that would suggest “other spring & durum” will make up the balance. Tomorrow the USDA will add their ideas of demand to the acres which will lead to a carryout projection. A recent trade poll suggested a carryout of 739 M bu. but they are using 500 K more acres.  As we move forward the trade will continue to try and assess whatever freeze damage occurred this week. Improved export sales would go far in keeping the current attempt to move higher intact. Today’s higher close has put a bit of positive spin on the chart pictures as they are challenging the topside of our recent 3 week old sideways market.

Daily Support  & Resistance – 02/19

March Chgo Wheat : $6.54 – $6.73

March KC Wheat: $6.29 – $6.48

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