Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 13 ¼ cents higher ($6.64), May 14 ¼ cents higher ($6.69 ¾) & July 13 ¾ cents higher ($6.57)

March KC Wheat closed 12 ¾ cents higher ($6.44 ½), May 12 ¾ cents higher ($6.51) & July 12 ¼ cents higher ($6.54 ½)

March Mpls Wheat closed 9 cents higher ($6.37 ¾), May 9 ¾ cents higher ($6.49 ¾) & July 9 ½ cents higher ($6.57 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 324.6 K T. vs. 300-500 K T. expected

Flip-flopping higher with higher highs and higher lows. Concerns over possible freeze damage here in the US and in Europe keeps futures well supported as does the recent sell-off in the US Dollar. Weekly export inspections for wheat were no big deal. As we move forward the fear of the unknown around the wintering new crop should work to keep the market relatively well supported until we come out of dormancy.

Interior cash wheat prices for standard protein remain quiet. I am told basis levels for higher protein wheat appear to be slipping a bit. Gulf prices remain quiet for both SRW and HRW. March/May spreads were soft ahead of 1st notice day while May gains on the new crop. May deserves a bit of premium vs. the new crop just in case crop damage is extensive.

Wheat futures continue to stair-step higher. May KC wheat registers a new high close while Chgo lags in that regard. KC should continue to lead as long as the fear of winterkill is one of our primary supporting issues. This will not happen everyday as Chgo is the more emotional of the two markets. Trying to be long wheat has been a tough trade given the last five days of flip-flopping from higher to lower back to higher. Despite this we do have a succession of higher lows. The only way to protect long positions without getting emotional is to use closing stops below the low of the past two days. Overall the price action still supports the idea of higher prices over the near term.

Daily Support  & Resistance – 02/23

May Chgo Wheat : $6.60 – $6.80

May KC Wheat: $6.40 – $6.59

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.