Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 14 ½ cents higher ($6.80 ¼), May 15 ¼ cents higher ($6.85 ½) & July 13 ¾ cents higher ($6.70 ½)

March KC Wheat closed 15 cents higher ($6.56), May 15 ¾ cents higher ($6.63) & July 15 ¼ cents higher ($6.66 ¼)

March Mpls Wheat closed 10 ½ cents higher ($6.46 ½), May 9 ½ cents higher ($6.57 ½) & July 8 ½ cents higher ($6.64 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 250-700 K T. expected – new crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected

New crop Chgo wheat (July) ekes out a new contract high and close (old crop May did not). Both May and July KC wheat punch out new contract highs and closes. I think a lot of the buying was technically induced when we traded through the recent three days’ highs. US wheat futures are also following the lead of European wheat futures as they moved into new high ground. The scenario for European wheat is much tighter vs. what we have here in the US. Underlying all of this is the  possibility/probability that the US winter wheat crop was damaged with last week’s deep freeze in the central southern US Plains.

I’m not seeing any changes for standard protein SRW. I am seeing a better basis levels for standard protein HRW. In Chgo March eases vs. the May ahead of 1st Notice day on Friday. The May forward spreads continue to tighten. KC spreads saw a similar scenario.

It’s not saying a lot but given today’s performance I have to think May Chgo wheat should at least challenge its Jan 15th contract high, $6.93. Support will be the highs we saw over the previous 3 days; roughly the $6.72 level. Since the KC market is already in new high ground I have to think the spec trade will try and extend the rally. Tomorrow is export sales day. A strong sales’ figure should be able to extend the current rally.

Daily Support & Resistance – 02/25

May Chgo Wheat : $6.74 – $6.93 (?)

May KC Wheat: $6.52 – ???

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.