March Chgo Wheat closed 8 ½ cents lower ($6.71 ¾), May 9 ¾ cents lower ($6.75 ¾) & July 7 cents lower ($6.63 ½)
March KC Wheat closed 11 ¾ cents lower ($6.44 ¼), May 10 ½ cents lower ($6.52 ½) & July 10 cents lower ($6.56 ¼)
March Mpls Wheat closed 5 cents lower ($6.41 ½), May 7 cents lower ($6.50 ½) & July 6 ¼ cents lower ($6.58 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 167.8 K T. old crop vs. 250-700 K T. expected – 14.8 K T. new crop vs. 50-150 K T. expected
Absolutely no follow through from Wednesday’s new closing highs. A kind description of the weekly export sales would be called feeble. Despite all of the chatter of a tight European wheat scenario and the Russian export taxes still no business comes to the US. Tomorrow’s delivery breakdown will be interesting considering the unknown around the condition of the new crop. Then again there’s no place to go with the wheat considering our lack of export demand.
Interior cash wheat markets are quiet for both SRW and HRW. The SRW basis has been running unchanged for what seems like forever. This holds true for both the domestic and export markets. The interior HRW basis has a firm tone while the export market looks soft. May forward spreads were widening in all three varieties.
Once again chasing short term inter-day extremes doesn’t pay. Today’s sharp early sell-off (down 19-20 cents) did challenge recently established support and it did hold. After the recent rally the price structure does show a fair amount of technical support below current prices which suggests hard break such as we saw today will be well received. What remains in question is the upside. I’m told the month of March has a bias for weakness. With that said let’s put our trading shoes back on to fade short term inter-day extremes for short term trading opportunities.
Daily Support & Resistance – 02/26
May Chgo Wheat : $6.68 – $6.82
May KC Wheat: $6.44 – $6.60
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.