Wheat Commentary

storck

Wheat – Just My Opinion

March Chgo Wheat closed 19 ½ cents higher ($6.63 ¼), May 16 cents higher ($6.66 ¼) & July 12 ½ cents higher ($6.55)

March KC Wheat closed 12 ¾ cents higher ($6.27), May 12 cents higher ($6.35 ¼) & July 11 ¾ cents higher ($6.40 ½)

March Mpls Wheat closed 12 cents higher ($6.40 ¼), May 11 ¾ cents higher ($6.45 ¼) & July 10 ¼ cents higher ($6.51 ¾)

The daily fund traders love pushing this market around. The lower ratings of selected winter wheat states coupled with the intra-day shift lower in the US Dollar opens the door for today’s buying. As far as I’m concerned we are not seeing any new export interest. After the recent 40 cent break short term inter-day technical considerations were reading oversold and that allows the market to retrace some of these recent losses. As we move forward through the month of March and into April the trade will anxiously await news as to the impact of the deep freeze we saw in the central southern Plains two weeks ago.

The interior wheat basis for standard protein, both SRW and HRW, have a steady to firmer bias from slow movement. Not much happens with the gulf basis for either variety. Bull spreads were working in Chgo; the lack of deliveries vs. the March contract and the flat price buying buoying the May contract. Until we have a better handle on the new crop May Chgo will maintain its premium vs. July. KC spreads had a bullish bias but nowhere near the extent that we saw in Chgo.

Fading short term extremes continues to be the MO for trading flat price wheat. I’m not sure much more needs to be said.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/03

May Chgo Wheat : $6.55 – $6.75

May KC Wheat: $6.25 – $6.45

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.