March Chgo Wheat closed 11 ¼ cents lower ($6.52), May 10 ¼ cents lower ($6.56) & July 8 ½ cents lower ($6.46 ½)
March KC Wheat closed 9 ½ cents lower ($6.17 ½), May 9 ¼ cents lower ($6.26) & July 9 ½ cents lower ($6.31)
March Mpls Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents lower ($6.35 ½), May 2 ¼ cents lower ($6.43) & July 2 ¾ cents lower ($6.49)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 100-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
A slightly firmer US Dollar, a near term forecast that has some rain for the southern US Plains and no noticeable export business has US wheat futures giving back a portion of Tuesday gains. Stories like French winter wheat having its best condition ratings in 4 years and Ukraine expanding its wheat areas doesn’t do much for our market. We still have the unknown around the possibility of freeze damage from two weeks ago but for the next few weeks it is nothing but speculation. Without better export business the best that can be hoped for is a continuation of the current trading range.
Cash markets for both SRW and HRW remain quiet. That applies to the respective export markets. Chgo spreads eased with the today’s flat price selling while KC spreads ran fractionally mixed out to July.
It seems the day-to-day wheat traders are willing to play short term inter-day technical considerations. The pseudo looking broad double top in May Chgo does have an ominous look to it for longer term considerations. The same holds true for the May KC contract. AS I’m reminded the month of March is not known to be a particularly friendly month for wheat prices.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/04
May Chgo Wheat : $6.45 – $6.70
May KC Wheat: $6.15 – $6.35
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.