March Chgo Wheat closed 10 cents higher ($6.56 ½), May 10 cents higher ($6.56 ½) & July 7 ½ cents higher ($6.48)
March KC Wheat closed 4 ¾ cents higher ($6.18), May 4 ¾ cents higher ($6.26 ½) & July 4 ½ cents higher ($6.32)
March Mpls Wheat closed 8 ¾ cents higher ($6.44 ¾), May 5 ¾ cents higher ($6.47 ½) & July 6 ¼ cents higher ($6.54 ½)
USDA Supply-Demand – US – left all demand data unchanged leaving carryout unchanged – World – increased production 3.34 M T. – increased total usage 6.57 M
T. – lowered carryout 3.02 M T.
Wheat prices were firm from the get-go in response to selected HRW rating declines, a lower US Dollar and what appears to be a slight pick-up in World export business. When the USDA announced their carryout projections wheat prices sold off with the rest of the Ag complex but quickly righted themselves due to the decline in the World carryout (looks like increased wheat feeding). The US carryout was left unchanged which was mostly expected. What changes the USDA did show was an increase in HRW stocks and a decline in WW stocks. This helps to explain the KC market being the weak sister among the varieties.
Today’s rally in the Chgo May contract was able to negate the suggested interim sell signal that was registered yesterday. For now we’ll call the minor trend sideways to easier. I’m not sure we’re going anywhere of substance on the upside but at least I don’t think we’ll be breaking down in the near term.
The May KC contract continues in its sideways to easier pattern. Like the Chgo market I’m not seeing any serious upside potential over the near term but at least the market won’t be breaking in the near term. If there is an upside bias in the near term May Chgo may look at something near the $5.72 level while May KC may look at something near the $6.50 level.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/10
May Chgo Wheat : $6.48 – $6.68
May KC Wheat: $6.18 – $6.40
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