March Chgo Wheat closed 14 ½ cents lower ($6.36 ¼), May 10 cents lower ($6.42 ½) & July 7 ¾ cents lower ($6.35 ½)
March KC Wheat closed 12 ¼ cents lower ($5.95 ¾), May 12 ¼ cents lower ($6.04 ¼) & July 12 ½ cents lower ($6.10)
March Mpls Wheat closed 7 ½ cents lower ($6.28 ¾), May 7 ¼ cents lower ($6.34) & July 7 ¼ cents lower ($6.41 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 329.6 K T. old crop vs. 150-350 K T. expected – 31.0 K T. new crop vs. 0-100 K T. expected
Egypt – buys 360 K T. Romanian wheat – paid $289.49 FOB, $297.40 CIF – previously paid $293.70 FOB, $311.59 CIF on 2/02/21 for 480 K T.
I’m told the Egyptian tender set the tone for the day; offers came in lower than expected as did the amount Egypt bought. Weekly export sales favored the high side of expectations. The lower US dollar little in terms of support. A good portion of the HRW area (central southern Plains) remains forecasted to see a fair amount of beneficial moisture over the next week. For what it is worth today’s close in May Chgo is the lowest we’ve seen dating back to February 12th. The close in May KC is the lowest we’ve seen dating back to January 11th.
Not much happens with the interior wheat basis for standard protein. I’m told movement is not much if anything at all. I’m thinking the winter wheat producer wants to see the forecasted moisture if not the impact of February’s deep freeze before he sells anything. The gulf basis suggests not much is happening in terms of market making demand. The May/July Chgo wheat spread has been trending wider dating back to the 1st of February. The same can be said for the May/July KC spread.
The technical picture for wheat futures continues to fail to impress. A May Chgo close below $6.36 will suggest something closer to the mid-low $6.20’s. Right now the May KC market is suggesting it’s in its way to the $5.90 level. I caution selling the current break in anticipation of the aforementioned levels as wheat futures are notorious for frustrating those who choose to chase short term extremes.
Daily Support & Resistance – 03/12
May Chgo Wheat : $6.38 – $6.52
May KC Wheat: $5.99 – $6.15
The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.