Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed ¼ cent higher ($6.27 ¼), July unchanged ($6.19 ¼) & Sept ¾ cent lower ($6.18 ¾)

May KC Wheat closed 7 ¼ cents lower ($5.78 ¼), July 7 cents lower ($5.84 ¼) & Sept 7 cents lower ($5.90)

May Mpls Wheat closed 1 cent lower ($6.26), July 1 cent lower ($6.34 ½) & Sept ½ cent lower ($6.41 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 648.4 K T. vs. 325-575 K T. expected

KC Wheat is your downside leader due to beneficial moisture occurring in the central southern Plains. Chgo wheat gets some left-handed support from inter-market spreading; buying Chgo selling KC. Chgo gets help from the better than expected weekly export inspections despite the lion’s share being HRS. Mpls gets support from the idea that HRS sowings could come down due to dryness in the northern Plains as well as competition from strong soy and corn prices that could lead to increased plantings of these alternative commodities.

The interior cash wheat basis remains fully steady for standard protein. The export market remains quiet for both HRW and SRW. Spreads showed a slight bullish bias in Chgo, mostly flat in KC.

The Kansas wheat crop continues to improve from recent moisture; now 45% GE vs. 38% GE week ago. The Texas wheat crop improves by 3% to 29% GE. The Colorado wheat crop improves 8% to 33% GE.

May Chgo wheat is trying to realize technical support down towards the $6.20 level. Unfortunately its upside looks limited; not much beyond the $6.40 level. In the near term it looks like the May KC contract should try and realize some technical support as it approached the $5.70 level. Like the Chgo contract upside potential looks limited especially if the central southern Plains continue to enjoy beneficial moisture.

Daily Support & Resistance – 03/23

May Chgo Wheat : $6.23 – $6.37

May KC Wheat: $5.72 – $5.86

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.