Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 16 ¼ cents higher ($6.18), July 16 cents higher ($6.15 ¾) & Sept 16 ¼ cents higher ($6.17 ¼)

May KC Wheat closed 17 ¼ cents higher ($5.75 ¾), July 17 cents higher ($5.81 ¾) & Sept 17 cents higher ($5.88 ½)

May Mpls Wheat closed 9 cents higher ($6.10 ¾), July 9 cents higher ($6.20 ½) & Sept 10 cents higher ($6.29 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 125-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. 75-200 K T. expected

USDA Wheat Quarterly Stocks – 1.314 B bu. vs. 1.272 expected vs. 1.415 year ago

USDA All Wheat Prospective Plantings – 46.358 M acres vs. 44.971 expected vs. 44.349 year ago – Winter – 33.078 M acres vs. vs. 31.811 expected vs. 30.415 year ago – Other Spring – 11.740 M acres vs. 11.644 expected vs. 12.250 year ago – Durum – 1.540 M acres vs. 1.641 expected vs. 1.684 year go

So what was bullish about the wheat market – CORN. Wheat acreage ideas came in higher than expected as did the wheat quarterly stocks data. If corn is going to fly higher it opens the door for wheat feeding but I’m not sure if I’ve ever seen a wheat market made from feeding wheat. The overall scenario behind the wheat market has not changed; old crop is for sale worldwide and the acreage increase here and the decent conditions overseas suggests more than ample sullies will remain for sale. I’m not saying wheat prices will give everything back they made today but it sure will be a laggard when compared to the rest of the Ag complex.

Given everything that transpired today throughout the Ag complex I think I can say wheat prices may have seen their lows for the time being. I’m not expecting to see any great shakes on he upside. Yes, there is room to rally but right now my bias is to expect to see wheat futures move into more of a sideways pattern vs. a distinct rally.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/01

July Chgo Wheat : $6.10 – $6.24

July KC Wheat: $5.76 – $5.90

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