Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¾ cents lower ($7.33 ¾), July 6 ¾ cents lower ($7.32 ¾) & Sept 6 ¼ cents lower ($7.32 ½)

May KC Wheat closed 2 ½ cents higher ($7.04 ¼), July 2 ½ cents higher ($7.11 ¼) & Sept 1 ½ cents higher ($7.14 ½)

May Mpls Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($739 ¾), July 1 ¾ cents lower ($7.47 ¼) & Sept 1 ¼ cents lower ($7.53 ¼)

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – Egypt cancelled tender (no reason given) but one has to think high prices was the rationale.

The US winter wheat crop is getting downgraded from recent dryness. The Spring crop is getting planted despite the dryness in the US northern Plains. The US southern Plains are forecasted to sustain a dry bias while the US northern Plains are forecasted to see normal moisture (in this day and age what is normal). Egypt passes/cancels on a tender that had been advertised since last Friday. They gave no reason for the cancellation but it’s my opinion it was sticker shock given the magnitude of the rally that has occurred since early April. In addition to the supply scare side of the equation (the developing new crop) a good portion of the recent rally has been in sympathy with the higher corn prices especially since many have shifted fed rations towards more wheat vs. less corn. So if the corn market sells off one would think the wheat market would also.

Interior cash markets don’t do a whole lot and that holds true for the export markets as well. The nearby spreads in Chgo tighten up a bit in anticipation of 1st notice day on Friday. Nearby KC spreads remain fairly static but do show a slight bullish bias going forward. Personally I don’t have much of a bias one way of the other here.

One would think today’s technical reversal following the 2 week rally of a $1.40 will prompt some backing and filling. I won’t say the highs we saw in the overnight are it because the new crop is not yet made and conditions do leave a lot to be desired. As far as I’m concerned a 50-60 cent break is not an unreasonable thing to see.

Daily Support & Resistance – 04/28

July Chgo: $7.15 – $7.47

July KC Wheat: $6.90 – $7.28

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.