Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 17 cents lower ($7.25 ½), July 16 ¾ cents lower ($7.18) & Sept 14 ¼ cents lower ($7.18)

May KC Wheat closed 15 ¾ cents lower ($6.82 ½), July 15 cents lower ($6.88 ½) & Sept 14 cents lower ($6.93 ¼)

May Mpls Wheat closed 7 ¾ cents lower ($7.55 ½), July 5 cents lower ($7.58 ¾) & Sept 6 cents lower ($7.62 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 509.9 K T. vs. 400-600 K T. expected

Not to be left out of the fray wheat prices ran sharply higher Sunday night but was the first market to experience profit taking. Just scattered showers in the northern US Plains, Canadian Prairies continues to support the spring wheat market (Mpls). Chgo and KC were hit the hardest as better weather is being forecasted for the developing winter crop in the US central southern Plains. Adding to that SovEcon suggests a record Ukraine wheat crop; nearly 4.0 M T. above last year’s production. Trade ideas have the pace of spring wheat planting at 48%-50% completed (49% reported). The trade is also thinking the country’s winter wheat condition could fall to 48% GE (48% GE reported -1%). Wheat charts have taken on a bearish look when compared to the rest of the Ag sector. The $7.10 level for July Chgo appears as the new jumping off point for recent purchases. Closes below that level will have prices trading below the past 6 days. The same can be said for the $6.80 level for the July KC market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 05/04

July Chgo Wheat: $7.10 (?) – $7.35

July KC Wheat: $6.80 (?) – $7.15

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.