Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

May Chgo Wheat closed 11 ½ cents higher ($7.37), July 8 ¾ cents higher ($7.26 ¾) & Sept 8 ½ cents higher ($7.26 ½))

May KC Wheat closed 8 ½ cents higher ($6.91), July 10 ¾ cents higher ($6.99 ¼) & Sept 11 cents higher ($7.04 ¼)

May Mpls Wheat closed 10 ¼ cents higher ($7.65 ¾), July 9 ½ cents higher ($7.68 ¼) & Sept 9 ¾ cents higher ($7.72)

Wheat prices continue to get support from rallying corn prices. Corn prices are such that I hear more and more reports of wheat feeding not only here in the US but abroad as well. The spring wheat areas remain in need of better moisture. Recent forecasts from the NWS suggest the possibility is there. The developing HRW crop could always use additional moisture to finish its maturity cycle. The latest from the NWS suggests the possibility is there as well. It’s my understanding that US wheat vs. its export competitors has lost any competitiveness it may have had. So if this market is sustain current price levels it will have to rely on strength coming from elsewhere.

Advertised basis levels for standard protein wheat are showing some minor strength in the Kansas area. Old crop supplies are winding down and producers are reluctant sellers until they are sure of their new crop. KC spreads show a fractional bearish bias. Not much is happening with SRW basis levels and the recent spread action (going nowhere in a 4 cent range) bear that out.

Best case scenario for the flat price wheat is to maintain the recent 7 day price range. I’m still viewing the $7.10 level for July Chgo as critical. The same holds true for the $6.80 level for July KC.

Daily Support & Resistance – 05/05

July Chgo Wheat: $7.10 – $7.40

July KC Wheat: $6.85 – $7.15

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