Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents higher ($6.62 ¾), Sept ¼ cent lower ($6.65 ¾) & Dec ¼ cent lower ($6.72)

July KC Wheat closed 2 cents lower ($6.10 ¾), Sept 2 cents lower ($6.19 ¼) & Dec 1 ¼ cents lower ($6.28 ½)

July Mpls Wheat closed 12 ½ cents higher ($7.60 ¼), Sept 11 ¼ cents higher ($7.66 ½) & Dec 8 ¾ cents higher ($7.65 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Today’s inside day for both the Chgo and KC markets suggest indecision vs. the higher Mpls market. Current weather conditions for the spring wheat continue to deplete its potential. Forecasts for the Dakotas call for cooler temps but moisture potential remains questionable. We know we have a good winter wheat crop but is it enough to offset the near guaranteed spring wheat losses. We know our global competitors overseas appear to have good wheat crops. With all of this said it tends to keep the Chgo and KC markets in limbo.

Going forward wheat charts, both Chgo and KC, show a bias to move lower. It may happen in a grudgingly manner if the Mpls market wants to go higher. I have to think we are going to see a lot of push-pull impacting the wheat markets – winter wheat harvesting, a poor US spring crop and inter-market spreading depending on the direction of the corn and soy markets. With all that said my trading approach would be fading short term inter-day extremes as they approach suspected support and or resistance levels.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/17

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.55 – $6.80

Sept KC Wheat: $6.10 – $6.30

 The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.