Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($6.61 ½), Sept ¾ cent lower ($6.65) & Dec ¾ cent lower ($6.70 ½)

July KC Wheat closed 6 ¾ cents lower ($5.99 ¾), Sept 6 ½ cents lower ($6.09 ¼) & Dec 6 ¼ cents lower ($6.20)

July Mpls Wheat closed 2 cents higher ($7.64 ½), Sept 1 ¼ cents higher ($7.67 ½) & Dec ¾ cent higher ($7.64 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 548.5 K T. vs. 300-525 K T. expected

US wheat futures were not left out of the whip-saw price action on Sunday night, Monday. Mpls wheat traded as much as 18 cents lower to 13 cents higher, KC wheat 19 cents lower to 5 cents higher and Chgo wheat 17 cents lower to 9 cents higher. The original idea for the lower prices Sunday night were the rains that moved through the Dakota’s Sunday. Monday morning’s assessment of that rain was that it was not as great as originally suggested. Forecasts for the Dakotas are not suggesting any new rain fall this week. The end result of today’s trade had the Mpls market maintaining modest gains, KC under some pressure from harvest ideas and the Chgo market was caught in the middle.

Trade ideas suggest another downgrade to the spring wheat ratings; 35% GE (-2%). The USDA reports spring wheat is now rated 27% GE (-10%). The condition of the winter wheat crop is expected to stay unchanged vs. last week; 48% GE. The USDA now rates the winter wheat crop at 49% GE (+1%). Harvest progress for the winter wheat crop is expected at 16% completed. The USDA says 17% of the US winter wheat crop has been harvested.

Spring wheat ratings have already been low but today’s dramatic decline of 10% pts to 27% GE, 37% P-VP, should have the Mpls market zooming tonight dragging up Chgo and KC. As of this writing one has to think losses in spring production will far offset any gains in winter production. HI-HO to the wheat market.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/22

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.60 – $6.95

Sept KC Wheat: $6.05 – $6.40

 The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.