Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 10 ½ cents lower ($6.51), Sept 10 cents lower ($6.55) & Dec 9 ½ cents lower ($6.61)

July KC Wheat closed 3 ¼ cents lower ($5.96 ½), Sept 3 ¼ cents lower ($6.06) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($6.16 ¼)

July Mpls Wheat closed 18 ½ cents higher ($7.83), Sept 15 ¼ cents higher ($7.82 ¾) & Dec 12 ½ cents higher ($7.77 ¼)

It was all about the different varieties Monday night, Tuesday. In response to last night’s spring wheat ratings Mpls wheat traded 35 cents higher, KC wheat traded 13 cents higher and Chgo wheat traded 11 cents higher. By the end of the session on Tuesday Mpls managed to hold on to about half of its gains but did close below the Monday night opening. KC struggled since the Monday night higher opening as it was caught between the fading feed grains and the still higher Mpls market. Mpls and KC are “hard” variety wheats. Chgo wheat succumbed to the decline in the corn market as well as what looks like a good “soft” crop.

Going forward the trade will continue to look at the declining spring crop and how much it will drag down total production. Just a reference point last year’s “other spring” production was 586 M bu. I’m beginning to wonder if the decline in the rest of the Ag complex opens the door for inter-market spreading involving long wheat. The chart action in both th Chgo and KC markets looks like some short term upflagging. Upflags are usually bearish leading formations – can the strength in Mpls keeps these two markets alive?

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/23

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.40 – $6.70

Sept KC Wheat: $5.90 – $6.20

 The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.