Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 10 cents lower ($6.51 ¼)), Sept 11 ¾ cents lower ($6.52) & Dec 11 ¾ cents lower ($6.58 ½)

July KC Wheat closed 6 cents lower $6.06), Sept 6 ¼ cents lower ($6.14 ½) & Dec 6 ¾ cents lower ($6.24)

July Mpls Wheat closed 4 ½ cents higher ($8.09 ¼), Sept 3 cents higher ($8.05 ¼) & Dec 1 cent higher ($7.98 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 374.1 K T. old crop vs. 200-525 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

All three wheat varieties sell off early with the rest of the ag complex. The Mpls market shows us the best comeback and rightly so given the state of our spring crop. Both Chgo and KC stayed lower on the day reflecting the ongoing harvest in the southern Plains (KC) and Chgo getting the short end of the stick on the inter-market spreads. Weekly export sales were deemed as okay.

The recent price action in the Sept Chgo contract was that of an upflag with the broader downtrend. Today’s price action is trying to suggest that upflag may be on the verge of breaking down. Given what is going on in the Mpls contract we may see yet some lower prices but I don’t see this market going into another leg down. Worst case we may see a challenge of the $6.30 level but I would think that would be enough. The Sept KC contract is maintaining its upflagging look. given what is happening to its sister contract (Mpls) I don’t see this market breaking down. Given the potential strength in the Mpls contract I have to think the Chgo and KC contracts are no worse that trading affairs going forward.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/25

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.40 – $6.75

Sept KC Wheat: $6.00 – $6.30

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