Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 6 ¼ cents lower ($6.39 ¾), Sept 5 ¼ cents lower ($6.46 ¼) & Dec 5 ½ cents lower ($6.53 ¼)

July KC Wheat closed 1 cent higher $6.19), Sept ¼ cent higher ($6.27) & Dec unchanged ($6.36)

July Mpls Wheat closed 22 ½ cents lower ($8.20), Sept 19 ½ cents lower ($8.14 ½) & Dec 12 ½ cents lower ($8.06 ¾)

Mpls wheat goes into a one day wave of profitaking after higher prices were seen Monday night in response to the further downgrade of the spring wheat crop. So I’m what changed to prompt the sell-off? As far as I am concerned it was all technical – month-end, quarter end, first notice day, acreage report and stocks report. I’m not seeing any changes in the weather forecasts for the spring wheat areas. Acreage ideas have spring wheat acres declining by about 300 K from the March estimate. The stocks figure shouldn’t be a big deal as it sets the previous season’s’ carryout, this year’s carry in. I don’t think it should vary too much from 850-860 M bu. The bottom line here is that Mpls wheat should continue to be biased to move higher. KC will tag along as it is a “hard” variety similar to the spring wheat contract. Chgo will play second fiddle until the situation becomes so dire with the spring wheat the spec will begin to pile into this contract. Buying breaks should continue to be the MO here.

Daily Support & Resistance – 06/29

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.30 – $6.65

Sept KC Wheat: $6.15 – $6.50

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