May Chgo Wheat closed 1 ½ cents lower ($4.58), July 2 ½ cents lower ($4.61 ½) & Dec 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.87)
May KC Wheat closed 1 ¼ cents lower ($4.26 ¼), July 2 ¼ cents lower ($4.32 ¾) & Dec 1 ¾ cents lower ($4.67 ¾)
May Mpls Wheat closed 7 ¼ cents higher ($5.30 ¼), July 5 ¾ cents higher ($5.37), & Dec 4 ¾ cents higher ($5.60 ½)
Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 300-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. 100-200 K T. expected
Once again it’s about the different varieties. Mpls wheat takes its cue from the snow storms that are happening in the Northern Plains. Chgo and KC languish from ample supply not only in the US but in the rest of the wheat world. Conditions remain good for HRW, not so much for SRW. I’ve asked this question before but I’ll ask it again, “can the good condition of the HRW crop offset the poorer looking SRW crop as well as the historically low acres?”
Not much happens with the advertised standard protein cash SRW. The Gulf for SRW looks steady to easier. May Chgo gains on July while July is steady to easier vs. its deferred contracts. The interior HRW basis appears to be steady but with a slight better bias. If there is a trend at the Gulf for HRW it too looks steady to easier. May KC gains on July while July runs steady to easier vs. its deferred contracts.
Flat price Chgo and KC wheat honor suspected interim support levels but are not showing any signs of rejecting these levels. Both of these markets need 10-12 cent rallies from current levels to steady things up. As of this writing the path of least resistance continues to look lower.
Daily Support & Resistance for 04/11
July Chgo Wheat: $4.59 ($4.54) – $4.75 July KC Wheat: $4.28 (?) – $4.42
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