Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 31 ¾ cents higher ($6.71 ½), Sept 33 ¼ cents higher ($6.79 ½) & Dec 31 ¾ cents higher ($6.85)

July KC Wheat closed 31 ¼ cents higher $6.50 ¼), Sept 32 cents higher ($6.59) & Dec 31 cents higher ($6.67)

July Mpls Wheat closed 48 ¾ cents higher ($8.68 ¾), Sept 35 ¼ cents higher ($8.49 ¾) & Dec 34 cents higher ($8.40 ¾)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

USDA Wheat Quarterly Stocks – 844 M bu. vs. 859 M expected

USDA Wheat Acreage UpdateAll Wheat – 46.743 M acres vs. 45.940 M expected vs. 46.358 M in March – Winter Wheat – 33.683 M acres vs. 33.028 M expected vs. 33.078 M in March – Spring Wheat – 11.580 M acres vs. 11.408 M expected vs. 11.740 M in March

I’m calling the quarterly wheat stocks figure pseudo friendly. Granted it’s a bit less than expected but we’re only 8 M bu. less than the carryout figure we’ve been dealing with. The acreage report comes in higher than expected led by the winter wheat acres. Increases here we’re more than enough to offset the lower spring acres which were higher than expected. The bottom line to all of this is the developing spring wheat crop which as of this writing looks like junk. This should act as a drag on total yield as well as total harvested acres. Total harvested acres, however, probably won’t come down as much as expected due to the sharp increase in the winter acres. It is my belief that the Mpls market still has room for yet higher prices and KC and Chgo should follow in that order. KC wheat will get additional help from high priced corn. I do think the trade will go back to buying soybeans and corn vs. selling Chgo wheat.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/01

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.65 – $6.95

Sept KC Wheat: $6.45 – $6.75

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