Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 25 ¾ cents lower ($6.20), Sept 26 ¾ cents lower ($6.26) & Dec 28 cents lower ($6.33 ½)

July KC Wheat closed 35 ¾ cents lower $5.75 ½), Sept 35 ½ cents lower ($5.83 ¾) & Dec 34 ½ cents lower ($5.95 ½)

July Mpls Wheat closed 55 ¼ cents lower ($8.68 ¾), Sept 45 ½ cents lower ($7.93 ¼) & Dec 42 ½ cents lower ($7.89 ¼)

Weekly Wheat Export Inspections – 258.4 K T. vs. 275-500 K T. expected

Overnight rains in the Dakotas hammers the Mpls market and that in turn hammers the KC market and Chgo falls in unison. Radar images suggest some pretty decent rainfall but word of mouth suggest it was not as good as it looked. Many will say the spring wheat crop in most of the Dakotas is beyond saving. Realize that points west of the Dakotas did not see this rain and their spring wheat crops are just as bad if not worse.

Trade ideas are suggesting the national spring wheat rating is 1% from last week; 19% GE. The USDA reports the national spring wheat rating is now 16% GE (-4%). It needs to be noted that 50% of the nation’s spring wheat crop is now rated P-VP. The winter wheat rating is expected to be unchanged at 48% GE. The USDA says the US winter wheat rating is now 47% GE (-1%). The USDA says 45% of the winter wheat crop has been harvested vs. 54% year ago vs. 53% 5-year average.

This afternoon’s spring wheat rating pretty much says our spring wheat crop is junk/nonexistent. As much as I think we have a pretty good winter wheat crop I have think its not enough to offset the spring wheat losses. With that said I have a hard time thinking we see much more downside follow through in any of the varieties.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/07

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.15 – $6.52

Sept KC Wheat: $5.77 – $6.05

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