Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 5 ¼ cents lower ($6.14 ¾), Sept 3 ¾ cents lower ($6.22 ¼) & Dec 3 cents lower ($6.30 ½)

July KC Wheat closed 5 ½ cents higher $5.81), Sept ¾ cent higher ($5.84 ½) & Dec ¼ cent higher ($5.95 ¾)

July Mpls Wheat closed 2 ¼ cents higher ($8.10), Sept 14 ¾ cents higher ($8.08) & Dec 10 ¾ cents higher ($8.00)

Mpls wheat goes it alone on the upside Wednesday as the trade responds to some pretty dire spring wheat crop ratings; 16% GE and 50% P-VP. The KC and Chgo markets struggled due their ongoing harvest as well as the strengthening US Dollar. On Monday the USDA will give us their first look at the size of the spring wheat crop. The average trader guess from the Bloomberg survey is 456 M bu. Given current crop conditions and what should be lower harvested acres vs. what the USDA gave us on the 30th I have to think spring wheat production could easily be closer to 400 M bu. The average trade guess for total wheat production is 1.843 B bu. (-55 M bu.). This is considering a winter wheat increase of 26 M bu. Carryout is projected to be 724 M bu. (-46 M bu.).

I’m still with the idea Mpls wheat still has further upside potential while the Chgo and KC markets have limited downside potential.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/08

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.15 – $6.40

Sept KC Wheat: $5.77 – $6.05

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.