Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat closed 2 ½ cents lower ($6.12 ¼), Sept 4 ¼ cents lower ($6.18) & Dec 3 ¾ cents lower ($6.26 ¾)

July KC Wheat closed 9 ¼ cents higher $5.90 ¼), Sept 3 ½ cents higher ($5.88) & Dec 3 ½ cents higher ($5.99 ¼)

July Mpls Wheat closed 2 cents higher ($8.12), Sept 3 cents lower ($8.05) & Dec 2 cents lower ($7.98)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-450 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Inter-market spreading dominates today’s wheat trade; Mpls a bit lower, KC a bit higher and Chgo a bit lower. There was some scattered moisture moving through S. Dakota earlier today but it did not appear to be much. I got the impression Chgo wheat was trading with the lower corn market while the KC market was reflecting the recent spate of world wheat business.

On Monday the USDA will update US production involving both winter wheat and spring wheat. Winter wheat production is expected to increase 21 M bu. from the June estimate. Despite this increase total production is expected to decline by 51 M bu. from the June estimate. This is all due to the poor spring crop. On June 30th the USDA gave their ideas on the spring wheat crop’s planted and harvested acres. I’m not finding anyone that believes their harvested number; its too high. Unfortunately I’m not sure the USDA will adjust that number since they just released it a week or so ago. Right now the average guess for spring wheat production is 459 M bu. I’ve heard from what I believe are credible sources a crop size 100 M bu. less. All we can do is wait and see if the USDA takes a conservative approach or a more accurate approach based on current crop conditions.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/09

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.12 – $6.35

Sept KC Wheat: $5.77 – $6.05

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.