Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

July Chgo Wheat expired 16 ¼ cents higher ($6.45), Sept closed 20 ½ cents higher ($6.54 ¼) & Dec 19 ½ cents higher ($6.62 ¼)

July KC Wheat expired 5 cents higher ($6.17 ½), Sept closed 16 cents higher ($6.27 ¾) & Dec 16 ¼ cents higher ($6.38 ¾)

July Mpls Wheat expired 15 cents higher ($8.82), Sept closed 11 cents higher ($8.72 ¾) & Dec 13 cents higher ($8.59 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – new crop vs. none expected

Egypt announces an overnight tender for optional origin wheat – Egypt buys 180 K T. Romanian – pays $262.19 – $266.88 total vs. 270.54 on July 6th – FOB prices are coming down while freight stays strong

Yesterday the strength of the US dollar weighed on the winter wheat futures. Today the reversal in the Dollar allowed winter wheat futures to rally. Spring wheat stays firm all along the way. The US spring wheat areas and the Canadian prairies are expected to return to being hot boxes. Any spring wheat that has been hanging on will get another round of extreme stress over the next few days into next week.

Many expressed disbelief that the USDA did not decrease the Canadian wheat more than 500 K T. on Monday’s crop report. Going forward those that are in disbelief believe the decreases in the crop size will be more substantial. Not only does the potential for lower yields in the US exist but so does lower harvested acres.

So what can I say about new highs, new high closes in Mpls wheat? I can say nothing as the new highs and closes speak for themselves. It is my thought that as the spring wheat crop shrinks further it will put more upside pressure in the Chgo and KC markets.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/15

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.44 – $6.73

Sept KC Wheat: $6.19 – $6.48

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.