Wheat Commentary


Wheat – Just My Opinion

Sept Chgo Wheat closed 17 ¾ cents higher ($6.72), Dec 16 ½ cents higher ($6.78 ¾) & March 15 ¾ cents higher ($6.85 ¾)

Sept KC Wheat closed 12 ½ cents higher ($6.40 ¼), Dec 12 cents higher ($6.50 ¾) & March 11 ½ cents higher ($6.58 ¾)

Sept Mpls Wheat closed 21 ¼ cents higher ($8.94), Dec 21 ½ cents higher ($8.81) & March 21 ¾ cents higher ($8.67 ½)

Weekly Wheat Export Sales – 424.7 K T. old crop vs. 200-500 K T. expected – no new crop vs. none expected

Solid looking weekly export sales based on expectations. Mpls wheat continues to move higher influencing Chgo and KC to follow. Whatever spring wheat is left may gone by his time next week given the forecasts for extreme heat and dryness. Chgo has the best gains vs. KC as this is where the spec most likes to play. It’s also due to the fact that as of the 6th both the large spec and the managed sector were net short. The headlines about flooding in Europe suggests French wheat may get downgraded to feed status while in Germany it’s almost being dismissed.

So – what’s the next target for nearby Mpls wheat? If one looks at a monthly it looks to me $9.60 is your next target. If true you can be darn sure Chgo and KC are not going to just sit. Nearby Chgo wheat is looking at something closer to the $7.05 in the near term. $6.60, $6.70 is almost a given for nearby KC wheat.

Daily Support & Resistance – 07/16

Sept Chgo Wheat: $6.60 – $6.85

Sept KC Wheat: $6.28 – $6.50

The risk of trading futures and options can be substantial. Each investor must consider whether this is a suitable investment. Past performance is not indicative of future results.